State of the Falcons: Can Atlanta be competitive in 2022?
Notes From Last Season
Positives
Offensive weapon Cordarelle Patterson exceeded everyones expectations after signing a one year deal with the Falcons. In Arthur Smiths offense, he had career highs in receptions, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, rushes, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. Patterson re-signed on a two year $10.5 million deal in March.
Cornerback AJ Terrell earned himself a place on APs second team All Pro line up. He was PFF's highest rated cornerback last season. Terrell starred every week. In 13 of 17 games, Terrell allowed less then 20 yards in coverage this season. When targeted he allowed the lowest passer rating (47.5) and completion percentage (43.9%) amongst cornerbacks.
Negatives
Death, taxes and the Falcons lack of a potent pass rush. Every man and his dog knows the Atlanta Falcons couldn't rush the passer last season. Only once in the past ten years have the Falcons ranked above 16th in sacks. They had only 18 sacks which ranked dead last in the NFL and it was eleven fewer then the second worst side.
Offensive lineman Jalen Mayfield was thrown into a starting role at left guard. Unfortunately, it became quickly clear to everyone except the Falcons coaching staff that he was in well over his head. He allowed the most sacks of any guard in the NFL, accounting for 11 sacks on Matt Ryan.
All 3 levels of the Atlanta Falcons defence were poor in 2021. Dean Pees unit was the third worst in the league, allowing 27 points per game. Their inability to get off the field on third down (opposition converted 48.4% of the time) was a big contributing factor to their misery.
Although Arthur Smiths team ended the year with a 7-10 record, against playoff teams last season we had an 0-7 record and a score differential of -143 in those seven defeats.
Offseason Acquisitions
Atlanta had to wheel and deal this offseason in an attempt to improve their roster. They wasted no time in replacing franchise QB Matt Ryan, signing Marcus Mariota on a two year deal just hours after Ryan was traded to Indianapolis. Atlanta will be optimistic the signing of PFF's 12th ranked cornerback in 2021, Casey Hayward, can bolster a secondary in desperate need of more consistency and better coverage. Anthony Firkser is a familiar face for Arthur Smith and he should fill the tightend #2 roll in the offense. Terry Fontenot utilised one year contracts again this offseason by adding Rashaan Evans, Lorenzo Carter, Damien Williams, Teez Tabor, Elijah Wilkinson and Germain Ifedi. Evans should compete for a starting linebacker role, having played in Dean Pees scheme before. Lorenzo Carter will likely start opposite second round pick Arnold Ebiketie on passing downs. Carter racked up 5 sacks in his last 4 games for the New York Giants. He should help improve a putrid Atlanta Falcons pass rush. Carter notched career-highs in hurries (23), tackles (29), and assisted tackles (13) in 2021.
After losing Calvin Ridley to a suspension for betting on games, Atlanta were left with a gaping hole at wide receiver, when Russell Gage decided to cash in on free agency and move to divisional rivals Tampa Bay. Bryan Edwards was acquired via trade with the Las Vegas Raiders for a 2023 5th round pick, Edwards will be competing with Olamide Zaccheaus and Auden Tate to start opposite the number 8th overall pick Drake London. Atlanta drafted Cinncinati QB Desmond Ridder in the 3rd round, potentially getting their quarterback of the future. There is a lot to like in Ridder's game, but having one of the least talented offenses around him, might mean sitting him until 2023 would be the smarter move. Troy Andersen, DeAngelo Malone, Tyler Allgeier, Justin Shaffer and John Fitzpatrick were all also added through the draft. Running back Mike Davis did not return in free agency, so Allgeier could be the best of Atlanta's later picks.
Key players
Georgia native Grady Jarrett is the heart and soul of the Falcons defence. He is capable of rivaling any interior lineman not named Aaron Donald. The proof is in the pudding, Jarrett continues to produce despite being surrounded by below average talent along the defensive line. He is a top 5 player at his position, which is stacked with elite talent.
Tightend Kyle Pitts had a good, but not great rookie season. The former Florida man will need to have a big leap in touchdown receptions, if Atlanta are going to be better in the redzone. The ceiling for Pitts is as high as any receiver in the entire league. Terry Fontenot decided to draft wide receiver Drake London with the 8th overall pick to take some of the opponents attention away from Pitts.
Arthur Smith decided to reunite with QB Marcus Mariota this offseason. Mariota will be key to whether the Falcons reach their potential or not. He is familiar with Smiths offense and offers more mobility than Matt Ryan which could help cover up some of the pass protection issues. His dual threat could potentially open up the playbook and more holes in the run game too. It is a chance at redemption for the former Tennessee Titan, who was benched for Ryan Tannehill and who spent last season in Vegas, backing up Derek Carr.
Talented Youngsters
After Foye Oloukun departed for Jacksonville and with Deion Jones likely headed for the exit door, I really like Mykal Walker chances to play a big role for Dean Pees defence this season. I found it infuriating that he sat behind the underperforming Deion Jones all of last season. Walker showed flashes last season, most notedly with his week 14 pick 6 of Cam Newton.
Safety duo Richie Grant and Jaylinn Hawkins should be given the opportunity to start this season providing Grant can beat out Erik Harris and Dean Marlowe. Last seasons starting safeties, Duron Harmon and Harris were below average starters last season. Atlanta must force more turnovers this season having had 20 (12 interceptions and 8 fumbles recovered) last year.
The Atlanta Falcons will be hoping second round pick Arnold Ebiketie can live up to his potential. The Falcons generated pressure at the lowest rate in the league last season (22%). Dean Pees desperately needs to get productivity out of Ebikietie, Carter or Ogundeji if his unit is to improve this season.
Biggest games
Week One vs. New Orleans Saints
The Atlanta Falcons start this season the same way they finished the last, with a home fixture against the New Orleans Saints. Arthur Smith men had a horror opening weekend display last season vs. Philadelphia Eagles and he'll be looking for a much better showing this season. Nothing gets the Falcons fanbase buzzing like a win over arch rivals New Orleans. It'll be a different looking Saints side after head coach Sean Payton departed following 15 seasons in charge.
Week Three @ Seattle Seahawks
It is imperative that the Atlanta Falcons start the season fast if they are to make noise in the 2022 NFL Season. Following a road trip to Superbowl Champions LA Rams, Atlanta travels to Seattle in week 3. This will be a good barometer of how good or bad Arthur Smiths team will be. If they lose to a Geno Smith or Drew Lock led Seahawks team, wins could be few and far between.
Keys To A Winning Season
Offensive Line and Playcalling must improve
Both the Falcons Offensive Line and Arthur Smith's playcalling will have to be a lot better, if Atlanta are going to post a winning season. Arthur Smith's offense was a huge disappointment in year one, largely due to the inability to play with a functional passing attack. This passing attack lacked skill at the receiver position, but Smith done a poor job scheming targets open. When there were open receivers, the offensive line didn't give Matt Ryan time often enough to find them. Kaleb McGary and Jalen Mayfield will have a short leash this season, Terry Fontenot will be hopeful that off season additions Germain Ifedi, Elijah Wilkinson and Justin Shaffer will provide better depth.
Defence
TJ Watt had 4.5 more sacks than the Atlanta Falcons did in year one under Dean Pees guidance. Pees had to use smoke and mirrors last season and he'll likely have to do more of the same in year two of his scheme. Failing to add a veteran edge rusher with pass rush pedigree was undoubtedly the second biggest disappointment of the offseason (After the pursuit of Deshaun Watson which alienated Matt Ryan). If Atlanta cannot win upfront, the additions to the other levels of their defence won't matter.
Home Advantage
Atlanta only won one game in the Mercedes Benz Stadium last season. If Atlanta's home form was better last season (2-6, one win was in London), they would have made the playoffs. They haven't had an above .500 record at home since 2017.
Record Prediction
I'll go with my head and not my heart for this prediction. We have a brutal schedule and a poor roster, I still have major question marks about Smith and Fontenot too. 3-14.
A Fans View
I asked @OneTime4TheFan a few questions. His Atlanta Falcons podcast can be found here every Wednesday and Sunday at 8pm ET.
Are Terry Fontenot and Arthur Smith the right men to lead the team?
"I believe so. Terry came and quickly made changes that I feel Falcons fans weren’t ready for. Arthur and Terry were able to create two solid draft classes. They worked through the cap situation and now we have a little money prior to this upcoming season. Many tough decisions were made and that shows promise. Picked up some decent free agents in the off-season to help us rebuild the team. I do understand that the team was not the best last year but we were still only 1 win away from the playoffs… say what you want. Shoutout to the coaching staff as well! Now there is still a long way to go but I like the direction the team is going in. Terry and Art want to win a championship for this city and I am looking forward to the next moves."
Best road stadium to visit?
"So I’ve been to a lot of stadiums and my goal is to go to all the stadiums in the NFL (if the Falcons are playing there!) Away games are a lot of fun because when you travel with a large group of fans it’s a party environment. This season I’ll be traveling to all the away games so I get to check some more stadiums off my bucket list. There are 3 stadiums where I had a really great time watching the Falcons play. The vibe, the food and the nightlife are so welcoming. So if you decide to hit the road sometime soon, I recommend the Hard Rock Stadium(Miami), Soldier Field(Chicago), State Farm Stadium(Arizona)."
One NFC South rival player you secretly admire?
"Nobody. It’s all about the Atlanta Falcons! If you don’t play for the Falcons I don’t really care about you."
If you could trade one Atlanta Falcons player to another team, who would it be?
"If you would’ve asked me this question a few weeks ago I would have said John Cominsky but we see what the Falcons did with him. Right now it would be Kaleb McGary."
One under the radar Falcon to keep an eye out for?
"Tyler Allgeire!! Check the film from college and get ready because he is a touchdown machine! Falcons got a gem here! Ready to see him on the field."
Which game on the Falcons schedule are you most excited for?
"Home game? It would be week 1 Saints vs Falcons at the Benz! It’s our chance to start the season 1-0 and what better feeling to open the season with a win against your rivals at home!
Away game? Week 3 Falcons vs Seahawks in Seattle! Getting the opportunity to visit one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL so I wanna see how the team responds to that environment. I have that down for a Falcons win as well!"
Atlanta will have a winning season if.....?
"I could talk about this all day but I’ll keep it short here. If we fix the mistakes from last season and play better as a team for 60 mins. Nobody knows what’s going to happen this season but if you practice, plan and prepare properly you can go out there and get the job done. Every season is different than the last. Rise Up!"
Atlanta will have a losing season because....?
"......you let the same mistakes from last season happen again this season. You see the problem and still can’t fix it. You have to improve on both sides of the ball every week when it’s game time and if we are not prepared it’s going to be a long disappointing season."
Record prediction?
"10-7 or 9-8 and we make it to the playoffs."
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