Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys Week 10 Preview

The Atlanta Falcons (4-4) are 9.5 point underdogs as they head to Dallas this week to take on a Cowboys team (6-2) coming off a surprising 30-16 home loss to the Denver Broncos. The match up will see the Falcons go up against a familiar face in Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn who was the Falcons head coach from 2015-2020. The two met last season in a game the Cowboys won 40-39 after recovering a late onside kick where the Falcons players didn't seem to know the rules for recovery. The Falcons had led that meeting 29-10 at half time. It was one of Atlanta's many blown 4th quarter leads that cost Quinn his job. Despite being huge underdogs the Falcons are coming into this game on a high after defeating the New Orleans Saints 27-25 last Sunday.

Before he was forced to miss the trip to Minnesota in week 7 due to injury, Dak Prescott was the best quarterback in the NFL this season. Although he is coming off one of the worst games of his career, that was against a menacing Broncos defence. Comparing them to the Falcons defence is chalk and cheese. How the Falcons stop the best set of wide receivers in the league will go a long way to deciding the winner of this game. In Amari Cooper, Ceedee Lamb and the returning Michael Gallup the Cowboys are a match up nightmare for most secondaries. The Falcons A.J Terrell will have to continue his amazing form. Terrell has given up the least amount of receiving yards in the NFL this season and has never given up a touchdown when in man coverage since turning pro. 

Head to Head

When the Falcons defence is on the field it will be a big mismatch as the Cowboys offense is the 3rd most potent offense in the league scoring an average of 30.1 points per game going up against a Falcons defence conceding the 5th most at 27.5 points per game. The key to Dallas attack has being staying balanced as they average the 3rd most rushing yards per game and 4th most passing yards. The Falcons defence ranks 31st in DVOA.

What might help the Falcons achieve slowing the Cowboys passing game down is Terence Steele starting at left tackle in place of the injured Tyron Smith. He gave up a staggering 9 pressures last Sunday. This is an area even a poor passing rushing team like the Falcons can expose. Dean Pees has to create a lot of one on one situations for his edge rushers vs. Steele. 

Against New Orleans, safety Jaylinn Hawkins played more snaps as the Falcons transitioned to a big nickel defence. Hawkins has earned more reps and he delivered on his opportunity by being one of the Falcons best players. Richie Grant deserves a look in at safety as both Duron Harmon and Erik Harris have been below average starters; them both continuing to play 100% of the defensive snaps is mystifying. 

The Falcons surprisingly cut edge defender Jacob Tuioti Mariner who led the team in sacks with 2 this week. Anthony Rush, Marlon Davidson and Grady Jarrett will have their hands full trying to contain Ezekiel Elliot. Making Dallas one dimensional on offense was a huge part of Denvers success in beating them last weekend.

Update: Dante Fowler Jr will play this weekend. Steve Means has been placed on IR. Here is a list of the Falcons inactives;

CB Kendall Sheffield

DL John Cominsky

OL Josh Andrews

TE Lee Smith

DL Ta'Quon Graham

DL Jonathan Bullard

The Cowboys will be without their best pass rusher in Demarcus Lawrence (who has been injured since week 1) and Randy Gregory who leads the Cowboys in sacks with 5. This should help a Falcons offensive line protect Matt Ryan who is coming off being awarded the NFC Offensive player of the week for his performance in New Orleans. Ryan is PFF's #1 ranked quarterback since week 3 showing he is becoming really comfortable in Arthur Smith's system. 

The burden will fall on Tarell Basham and Micah Parsons to try and slow down a Falcons pass attack that moved the ball well last weekend.  Parsons has lived up to his pre draft billing being utilized all over the defence for Mike McCarthys side. The Cowboys defence have had issues in the red zone and rushing the passer this season. 

Key Match Up

Falcons Pass Catchers vs Cowboys Secondary 

Although Trevon Diggs leads the league in interceptions with 7 but he also leads the league in giving up the most yards by a cornerback. He is the definition of a boom or bust player. His partner opposite him, Anthony Brown has given up the 2nd most yards amongst cornerbacks so this suggests if the Falcons can give Matt Ryan time he can attack two error prone cornerbacks. The fact Trevon Diggs is in contention for defensive player of the year is laughable. I'd like to see the Falcons split Kyle Pitts out wide and go after Diggs or Brown. It could be a big day for Olamide Zaccheaus or Russell Gage who had their best outings of the season last Sunday. 

Where We Must Improve

Linebacker: Deion Jones: Debo has had a very bad season this year for the Atlanta Falcons. His contract looks worse and worse each year. He has allowed a pathetic 40 catches off 45 targets for 399 yards and 2 touchdowns. 

Run blocking: We've been atrocious at running the ball. The Falcons averaged 1.4 yards per carry last Sunday and have a 28th ranked rush offense in the NFL. To keep defenses honest and avoid obvious passing downs we need to be more effective rushing the ball against a Cowboys defence who allows the 10th least rush yards per game. 

A Cowboys Fan View

I asked Ryan Hutson (@ryan_hutson on Twitter), a big Dallas Cowboys fan some question about his team.

Who has been the best defensive player for Dallas this season?

"Micah Parsons or Randy Gregory."

Who will Dan Quinn use to match up with Cordarelle Patterson?

"Maybe Keanu Neal."

What has been the biggest strength for Dallas on offense this season? What has been their biggest weakness?

"Strength has been our number of weapons and the weakness would be the shuffling of the Offensive line".

What has been the biggest strength for Dallas on defence this season? What has been their biggest weakness?

"On defence the strength would be our defensive pursuit and our weakness would be stopping the run when it counts".

Your score prediction for Sunday?

"38-17 Cowboys".

Betting Odds

Spread: Cowboys -9.5
Moneyline: Falcons +340 Cowboys -430
Over/Under: 54.5 points

Prediction 

Falcons 27-30 Cowboys 

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We can be followed on Twitter @falcons_corner or on Instagram at falcons.corner. If you have any thoughts on the game or have a score prediction, feel free to leave it in the comments below.

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