Atlanta Falcons @ Jacksonville Jaguars Week 12 Preview
The 4-6 Atlanta Falcons travel to Duval County to take on the 2-8 Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags are led by No.1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence at quarterback and first year head coach Urban Meyer who made his name in college football winning three National Championships
Both teams are coming in on two game losing streaks.
Head to Head
Trevor Lawrence has struggled in his rookie year in large part to not having a great supporting cast around him. Lawrence ranks as PFFs #35 quarterback out of 36 which confirms he hasn't been good. One player who doesn't fall into the category of being a bad support player for Trevor Lawrence, is running back James Robinson who has PFFs highest rushing grade amongst all running backs at an incredible 90.5. This has been reflected in Jacksonville averaging 5.0 yards per rushing play this season. Lawrences struggles show up in his stat line having thrown only 8 touchdowns compared to 9 interceptions in his ten starts so far.
Jason LaCanfora of CBS revealed on Sunday that Jacksonvilles staff are at loggerheads at how they should go about developing Lawrence. Some want to incorporate more run pass option plays which he ran in college at Clemson but others are concerned it would increase the chance of him being injured. Jags tackles Jawaan Taylor and Greg Robinson have been below average starters. Center is another hole Jacksonville have along their offensive line with neither Brandon Linder nor Tyler Shafley ranking in PFFs top 25 for the position.
Falcons D vs Jaguars O
This is how it will look when the Jacksonville offense is on the field vs. the Falcons defence. It will be a great opportunity for Lawrence to have one of his best games of the season going up against a very poor Atlanta defence. As I've documented in previous articles, A.J. Terrell and Grady Jarrett are the only brightsparks on Dean Pees porous unit.
When the Jags are in 12 personnel, they'll fancy their chances to move the ball on the ground. The Falcons defence has only one defensive lineman who has been consistently good against the run which is Jarrett. The Jags two starting guards are good run blockers so expect them to run up the middle attacking a soft Falcons front. Manhertz is a good blocking tight end that they like to run behind when running outside the tackles.
Falcons O vs Jaguars D
Edge rusher Josh Allen is the star for a Jaguars defence who rank 23rd in points allowed. They are a unit who I feel are better then their ranking but they are on the field more given their offensive struggles.
Given the Falcons inability to run the ball, they will face plenty of second and third and long situations which will require Matt Ryan to pass. Edge rushers Allen and Smoot will provide problems for Falcons tackles Matthews and McGary. Former first round pick Kaleb McGary has been a huge let down since being drafted. Many draft experts thought we picked him too high and they have been proven right. Tavon Bryan could cause problem internally for the liability that is Jalen Mayfield. The Falcons have to give Matt Ryan time to allow his below par receivers to get open. If they don't we could score less then 10 points for a third game running.
Key Match Up
Falcons Offensive Line vs Jaguars Defensive Line
A Jaguars Fan View
I asked Nathan Lavelle, a big Jacksonville Jaguars fan from Ireland his opinion on his Jaguars.
Are you happy with how the season has gone?
Far from it. It’s been a frustrating season, that goes without saying when your record is 2-8. Watching the Jags sometimes feels like you’re just waiting for the inevitable turnover or interception that’ll knock the wind out of our sails. That being said, there have been some enjoyable moments this year. Our last-second win against the Dolphins in London was great. Of course, It would have been a lot better if our season highlight was something like beating the Superbowl champs or getting into the playoffs rather than stopping what would be a historic losing streak. I suppose you’ve got to take your victories wherever they may be. We have a new coach and a new quarterback and it’s a rookie season for both of them in the NFL. Teething problems are to be expected. so I’m viewing this as a transition period for the team. There won’t be room for any excuses in 2022, this can’t happen again next season.
Are you happy with Trevor Lawrence’s development so far?
Yes and no. He definitely looks to be at the very least, a decent player, but I’m not sure he’ll turn out to be the superstar he’s been touted to be. His pass completion rate is 58% and he’s only got 8 touchdown passes this year, this is not good enough, not for a player of his supposed caliber. But sometimes in the nascent stages of a player’s career, they can learn a lot more experiencing failure than success. I’m hoping that’s the case with Lawrence.
I think he deserves the benefit of the doubt because he’s a rookie. With a full season under his belt, I do hope he’ll have learned from his mistakes and return next year as a better player. Lawrence needs to step up his game eventually otherwise our long and fruitless search for a top-quality QB will just have to continue.
Unfortunately, and I think the Falcons fans can relate to this, as a jags supporter in 2021, with the absence of something tangible all we really have is hope. And it’s the hope that kills you!
Who has been the Jags MVP through the 11 weeks?
It has to be Jamal Agnew. He’s a very exciting and dynamic player, that has delivered some moments of joy to a fanbase that has been starved of it. A 102-yard touchdown against the Broncos and then 109 yards against the Cardinald the following week. Incredible.
Update: Unfortunately Agnew was placed on IR today, Monday 22nd of November and will miss the game with the Falcons.
What is the Jaguars’ biggest strength?
It’s really hard to say. It’s been a difficult season and there’s not been any aspect of our game that has stood out as particularly impressive. I guess I could say our wide receivers. With the likes of Agnew, Shenault, Jones, Chark, and co - it’s quite a strong area for us.
Urban Meyer, In or Out?
I’m undecided. It’s been a very poor season but coming to the NFL is a big transition for him, I don’t want to be too reactionary as I think it’s important to be patient. I think we need to give him another year. Deep down, I don’t believe he’s the right man for the job and If things don’t improve, I think it would be in our best interests to look elsewhere for a head coach. He’s a legend at college level, and I have a feeling that’s where he belongs. I hope I’m wrong.
What Weaknesses can the Falcons exploit?
Our belief. You don’t have a record like ours without gaining some confidence issues along the way. We’ll no doubt give the ball away a few times throughout the game, so I think you’ll be enjoying some interceptions and/or turnovers.
Score Prediction?
I know you’re not feeling too confident at the moment but I think the Falcons will win, probably by a margin of 7-14 points. If I have to guess an exact score I'll say Falcons 24-10 Jags. Good Luck, may the best team win!
Betting Odds
Spread: Falcons -1.5
Moneyline: Falcons -117 Jaguars -103
Over/Under: 46.5 points
Prediction
Falcons 16-20 Jaguars
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All positional pictures taken from PFF.com
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