New England Patriots @ Atlanta Falcons Week 11 Preview
On Sunday, the Patriots had the most impressive win of anybody thumping a good Cleveland Browns team 45-7 in Foxborough, as the Falcons were the victims of an embarrassing 43-3 loss to the Dallas Cowboys. The Falcons player of the season so far, Cordarelle Patterson is doubtful with an ankle injury. If Patterson does miss out, in addition to Calvin Ridley already being on injured reserve, it'll leave just Kyle Pitts as a quality receiving option for Matt Ryan.
Head to Head
The Patriots score the 6th most points per game at 27.5. They are a balanced offense, ranking middle of the pack for passing and rushing yards per game. Earlier in the season they had issues turning the ball over on offense but they have cleaned that up in recent weeks which has helped contribute to their win streak. Mac Jones ranks as PFFs #5 ranked quarterback which is remarkable considering he is a rookie. New Englands offensive line is one of the strongest units in the league anchored by center David Andrews and elite run blocking guard Shaq Mason. It is hard to envisage the Falcons laying a glove on Mac Jones with their measly pass rush.
Although they haven't a pro bowl calibre player at receiver, free agent signing Kendrick Bourne has played well. Hunter Henry is a deadly red zone threat from the tight end position having scored 7 touchdowns in his last 7 games. 3rd choice wide receiver Jakobi Meyers gives them the option to run trick plays given his previous quarterback experience. Running back Damien Harris should return after he missed their victory over Cleveland. Harris ranks as PFFs #4 running back. Rhamondre Stevenson looked brilliant filling in for Harris as he rushed for 100 yards and 2 touchdowns against a Browns defence superior to Atlanta's. There's not much that the Falcons do well. If you look at every statistical category their units aren't near or at the top of any of them. They fail the eye test too. It really is a surprise that they've managed to win 4 of their first 9 games. Defensive coordinator Dean Pees said this week that he planned to play plenty of zone coverage vs. Dallas but they were so many mental errors and blown plays early on that he was forced to play man coverage.
Pats defence is conceding the 2nd least amount of points per game at a 17.7 average. In addition to not allowing many points; they also force turnovers at an incredible rate. They have forced 17 in total this season (14 interceptions and 3 forced fumbles). What Belichick likes to do is take away a teams number 1 receiver and stop what they do best. If Patterson isn't healthy, expect Kyle Pitts to be double covered. If Patterson does start I think they will alternate bracketing Patterson and Pitts depending on the formation, down and distance. New England star on defence this season has been their big offseason acquisition from the Baltimore Ravens Matt Judon.
Update: Falcons injury report:
OUT: TE Hayden Hurst; LB Daren Bates; CB Kendall Sheffield.
QUESTIONABLE: RB/WR Cordarrelle Patterson, S Jaylinn Hawkins
Key Match Up
Falcons Coaching vs. Patriots Coaching: Given that we are the less talented team and we are lacking in quality receiving options; the only way I can see the Falcons keeping this game close is if the coaching staff have their best game of the year. If the Patriots secondary bracket Pitts, Arthur Smith will have to try and scheme up a way of getting the likes of Gage, Zaccheaus and co open. It is essential that Atlanta finds a way of running the ball otherwise New England will stay in a two deep safety look daring Matt Ryan and his group of appalling receivers to beat them. Will Arthur Smith outcoach the greatest coach in NFL history Bill Belichick? I wouldn't hold my breath. Dean Pees needs to do a better job with his defence. His Falcons defence looks more like a college level defence then NFL. Slowing a good Patriots run game and attempting to confuse Mac Jones with different blitzes and coverages is our only way of potentially stopping their offense. If the Patriots have joy on the ground allowing them to use play action, then this game could get out of hand.
A Patriots Fan View
I asked Georgie Kip (@georgiekipp on Twitter), a big New England Patriots fan some questions about his team.
Georgie Kip @georgiekipp is known as the Other Pats Fan in the viral video series Shit Pats Fans Say on YouTube.
Are you happy with how the Pats season has gone so far?
"I’m happy and sad. The future is bright. But we gave away 3 games this year. Dolphins, Tampa Bay and Dallas. Fumble at the 10 yard line. Missed FG. OT game that was essentially won. This is Post-Brady Pats though. We don’t have the confidence of “we need 10 points in the 4th to win it…it’ll happen.” We are a running team with some trick plays and a quarterback who makes the good throw (usually)…comparable to the 2001 Pats SB team."
Who has been the Patriots player of the season so far?
"The Patriots Player of the Year has been Matt Judon. Easily. Maybe the only pro bowl player on the roster (maybe nick folk?). He’s a combo of McGinest, Hightower, Bruschi and Vrabel. Solid young player on an aging defense."
How has your rookie class faired?
"Mac (Jones) is playing better than any other rookie QB. He’s solid. He says the right things. He’s essentially throwing to Hunter Henry, Brandon Bolden and Jakobi Meyers. Algohor is good for a big play each game and Kendrick Bourne has been good but unspectacular. Mac is only going to get better. Barrmore on D has been a beast. He’s gonna be an every down player sooner rather than later."
What is the biggest strength of the Patriots? The biggest weakness?
"The biggest strength has been the O Line. The running game has been on point. Mac isn’t getting killed. Blocking has been excellent. The biggest weakness is that some of our old reliables are showing their age. There is no doubt that McCourty, Hightower and Van Noy have all lost a step. Thankfully Dugger, Judon, Jamie Collins and Bentley are stepping up."
Score Prediction for your game vs the Falcons?
"The Falcons are like Rocky…there is always a Puncher’s chance…Matt Ryan can still make the big play/the perfect pass. JC Jackson/Jalen Mills/Adrian Phillips are opportunistic young corners who make plays. I think it comes down to Ryan vs the Cornerbacks. 24-13 Patriots."
Betting Odds
Spread: Patriots -7
Moneyline: Patriots -150 Falcons +205
Over/Under: 46.5 points
Prediction
Patriots 27-6 Falcons
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