Atlanta Falcons @ Buffalo Bills Week 17 Preview

The Atlanta Falcons travel to Buffalo as 14 point underdogs. Although the Bills have only two more wins then the Falcons, the gulf in class is about as big as you can have in the NFL. Buffalo are for real. They are coming off an impressive 33-21 win at New England. Josh Allen is a top 5 quarterback in the league. Stefon Diggs is as good as any receiver not named Davante Adams and Sean McDermott is easily a top 5 NFL head coach. 

It is hard to think of a worse match up for an Atlanta Falcons team, who are used to playing in the comforts of an indoor stadium, having to go to Buffalo on a cold Decembers afternoon. For the Falcons to make the playoffs, they must win their two remaining games, have the Eagles lose twice and the Vikings lose once or win both their games and the 49ers lose twice. 

Head to Head

The Bills have outscored their opponents by 163 points this season. The Falcons have a -122 score differential. The Bills are +10 in turnover margin, whereas the Falcons are -5 despite 11 straight games with a turnover from their defence. The early weather reports suggest, there is a 70% chance of snow in Orchard Park on Sunday. 

Falcons D vs Bills O

Bills quarterback Josh Allen is an extraordinary talent. Allen can convert first downs with his arms or legs. He has one of the strongest arms in the league, in addition to athletic ability few possess. The Falcons would struggle to stop him with 12 defenders on the field. The Patriots done a good job of moving him off his spot below, but Allen produces a pass out of this world.


Allen has the most touchdown passes on throws 10+ yards downfield with 24. This is five more then any other quarterback. Allen has had seven games with atleast 300 passing yards and 3 passing touchdowns and no interceptions in the past two seasons, one more then the next best quarterback. 


Allen is already 2nd all time in games of 300+ passing yards and 50+ rushing yards. Allen's has had 5 such games which ranks above every quarterback in NFL history except Steve Young who had 8.

Dean Pees and his defence must stop Buffalo on third down. The Bills are the 4th best team in the league at converting third downs. Bills wideout Stefon Diggs is an incredible route runner. He has 89 reception for 1092 yards and 9 touchdowns this season. 56 of these receptions have gone for first downs. Pees needs to ensure that Diggs is doubled teamed on every play, when lined up against any Falcons cornerback not named AJ Terrell. Josh Allen has been sacked 26 times this season. Isaiah McKenzie stepped up last Sunday in Cole Beasley's absence, hauling in 11 passes on 12 targets for 125 yards and a touchdown. If the Falcons are to keep the game close, Grady Jarrett and Dante Fowler will have to perform. They're the only two defensive linemen on the Falcons roster that have the ability to wreak havoc for the opposition. The issue for Jarrett, is that he is usually double teamed. It is imperative that we get pressure on Allen, otherwise he'll kill us through the air.


Running back Devin Singletary leads the Bills backfield. Singletary has rushed for 672 yards and 4 touchdowns with a 4.6 yards per carry average. Josh Allen is second on the team with 619 rushing yards. Only Stefon Diggs (56) has accounted for more first downs then Josh Allen rushing (43). Tightend Dawson Knox is a big redzone target. He is tied for the most touchdown receptions on the team with 9. Falcons safeties Jaylinn Hawkins and Richie Grant are questionable for this game, as they were recently placed on the Covid list.


Falcons O vs Bills D
The Bills have a world class pair of safeties in Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer,  who help lead the leagues number 1 pass defence. The duo are tied for the league lead in interceptions by safeties with 5 each. The Bills concede an average of 17.6 points per game. The 3rd best in the NFL. Buffalo have forced 29 turnovers this year (19 interceptions and 10 forced fumbles). As a unit, they have 28 sacks. They can pressure the opposition from anywhere, as 15 different players have contributed to sacking the quarterback. The Bills all pro cornerback Tre'Davious White is on IR for the remainder of the season. His replacements have done a stellar job. No Buffalo cornerback allowed more then 50 yards in coverage last Sunday vs New England. Falcons tightend Kyle Pitts broke Tony Gonzalez's franchise record of most receiving yards by a Falcons tightend in a season. Pitts has 949 receiving yards on 64 catches. It would be nice to see the Falcons get the ball to Pitts more in the redzone. Pitts has the jump ball ability that should make him a huge endzone target. Jerry Hughes and Gregory Rousseau are PFF's 25th and 46th ranked edge defenders respectively. Mario Addison and Efe Obada give Buffalo a nice threat as a situational pass rushers. The pair have 7.5 sacks between them.



The Buffalo Bills run defence has allowed 18 rushing touchdowns this season. Although they rank 17th for rushing yards allowed per game with 114.8. In their past 3 games, the opposition has enjoyed success on the ground at an average of 145.7 yards. They can be vulnerable to a good rushing game. Unfortunately for Atlanta, they do not rush the football well consistently. The Falcons need to try and control the clock and keep Josh Allen an co. on the side lines for long periods. The key to this is having success in the run game and converting third downs. Atlanta rank #26 for time of possession and Buffalo rank #7.  The Falcons are the 15th best team on offense at converting third downs and they'll be going up against the NFL's second ranked third down defence. Tremaine Edmunds leads Leslie Fraziers defence in tackles with 97. Defensive tackle Harrison Phillips is a very good run stopper. Ed Oliver and Star Lotulelei will be a hand full inside for the Falcons offensive line. Hayden Hurst is questionable for this game as he was placed on the Covid list.


Falcons vs Bills (Special Teams)

Buffalo haven't scored a kickoff or punt return touchdown this season. They had one punt blocked in week 1 vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers. They allow the 3rd least amount of kickoff return yards at an average of 18.6 yards. Although the Atlanta Falcons have Cordarelle Patterson, they haven't scored a kickoff off return touchdown this season.

The Falcons will do well to cover the spread. Arthur Smith should try to steal a possession or two by trying a fake punt, fake field goal or even an onside kick. Smith should be prepared to go for it on 4th down. The Falcons won't keep this game close by playing conservative and scared. 

A Bills Fan View

I asked Chris O'Brien (@ChrisOB413 on Twitter), a huge Buffalo Bills fan, a few questions about his team.

Are you happy with how the season has gone so far?

"I am happy with how the team had played and bounced back after tough losses. The Bills a very talented team with a tremendous will to win."

What is the Buffalo Bills biggest strength? 

"The Bills biggest strength is their passing game. When the OL holds up, Josh Allen is a dangerous QB."

What is the Buffalo Bills biggest weakness?

"Our biggest weakness is our run defense."

Who has been the Bills MVP this season? 

"Josh Allen has by far held this team on his back some Sundays, he’s my MVP for the Bills this season."

How will Buffalo's season end? 

"Bills will end their season 11-6."

Score prediction?

"Bills 37-13 Falcons."

Betting Odds

Spread: Bills -14.5
Moneyline: Falcons +650 Bills -1000
Over/Under: 44.5 points

Prediction 

The only way the Falcons win this, is if the Bills lose all their quarterbacks or half the roster to the covid list.

Falcons 10-41 Bills. 

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