Detroit Lions @ Atlanta Falcons Week 16 Preview

The Atlanta Falcons host the 2-11-1 Detroit Lions looking for their first home win since November 2020. Lions quarterback Jared Goff has been placed on the Covid-19 list, so he is a doubt for the game. The Lions are led by first year head coach Dan Campbell. Campbell played tightend in the NFL and his last ever game was for Detroit vs. Atlanta in Matt Ryan's Falcons debut, back in 2008. The Lions stunned Superbowl contender Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, meaning they are coming in on a high.

The past three meeting between these sides have had spectacular endings. Last season, we had the famous incident, where Todd Gurley was told to stop short of the goalline, to allow Atlanta to run out the clock and kick a game winning field goal. Gurley accidentally fell into the endzone for a touchdown. This allowed Matthew Stafford to march his team down the field and throw a game winning touchdown, as timed expired to win the game 23-22. The Falcons won 30-26 at Ford Field in 2017 when a ten second run off rule, ran out the clock on Detroit as they got tackled at the one yard line with seconds left. Then there was the game in London, that I attended in person in 2014. The Falcons stormed out to a 21-0 lead, only to squander it and lose to a walk off Matt Prater field goal.

Head to Head

The Lions have a turnover differential of -4, compared to the Falcons -5. The teams are very close in terms of points differential too. Atlanta have been out scored by 126 points by their opponents this season, where as Detroit have been outscored by 123 points. 

Lions O vs Falcons D

Detroit rank a measly 28th in points scored per game with 17.1. If Jared Goff can't play, Dean Pees will be confident his below par defence can keep them under this. The Lions have been woeful on third down, converting at a rate of just 33%.

If Goff can't play, Tim Boyle will start at quarterback for Detroit. Boyle looked way out of his depth in his only start of the season, as he produced one of the worst quarterbacking displays of the season vs. the Cleveland Browns. It was statistically the worst performance by a Lions quarterback since 2009. Dean Pees defence has struggled this year but they have had some success against inexperienced quarterbacks like Boyle. Dan Campbell's men average 4.5 yards per rush which ranks 7th and they have scored nine rushing touchdowns on the ground this season. The Lions offense has committed 19 turnovers, while the Falcons have forced 16. With only three games remaining, I want Dean Pees to go with Mykal Walker the rest of the way as a starting linebacker. Deion Jones isn't a good scheme fit. He thrives when he can go sideline to sideline, utilising his athletic ability and covering backs in coverage. This season he has been out of position all too often and he should be a trade or cut candidate in the offseason. Start Walker to see what we have in him and if he could be a starter for next season. I also want to see Richie Grant and Darren Hall starting in the secondary. Duron Harmon has no place being in the starting line up. 

6th overall pick, Penei Sewell has been very good for Detroit in his rookie season. Sewell and Taylor Decker give Detroit an elite pair of tackles. The Lions are lacking game changing ability at their skill positions. With a lack of quality at wide receiver for Detroit, if Atlanta can force 2nd and 3rd and longs, it would put the ball in Goff or Boyles hands to try and beat them. The Falcons will win the game if they make whomever starts throw 30 times or more. DeAndre Swift status remains uncertain. Jamaal Williams will take on the responsibility if Swift can't go. With Goff under center, Detroit average only 6.3 yards per pass, which is the 4th lowest in the NFL. It's a match up I like the Falcons secondary to win. Per PFF, AJ Terrell is allowing the fewest yards per coverage snap (0.33) of any cornerback since 2006. Terrell is the biggest pro bowl snub of the season in my opinion. Amon-Ra St. Brown leads the Lions with over 600 receiving yards. 

Lions D vs Falcons O

It will be a battle of the 26th ranked scoring offense and defence. The Lions allow 26.1 points per game. The Lions have been decimated with injuries. Former Falcon Charles Harris is the star man for Detroit's defence. Harris has 7.5 sacks this season. Atlanta must rue letting him walk out of the door, when you compare him to the gang of spoofers we have rushing the passer. Detroit's third down and redzone defence have been very bad this season, ranking 29th and 27th respectively. 

Only Las Vegas  Raiders, Alex Letherhead has a worse pass blocking game amongst guards with more then 800 snaps this season then Jalen Mayfield. The fact Mayfield continues to start is a damning indictment on the lack of depth the Falcons have at the position. Chris Lindstrom, the Falcons other starting guard hasn't allowed a sack all season. The pair are the definition of chalk and cheese. Lindstrom was very unlucky to miss out on the Pro Bowl. This should be a favourable match up for the Falcons offensive line though. Jake Matthews is a solid left tackle, so he should be able to negate Charles Harris threat. With Jeff Okudah on IR, former 5th round pick, Amani Oruwariye has stepped up for the Lions. Aside from Oruwariye, they do struggle in the secondary. Falcons wide receiver Russell Gage could be in for another day, going against a secondary giving up the 2nd most yards (8.0) per pass. Atlanta should have no problem moving the ball down the field against the Lions, who have only sacked the opposition 22 times. 

Detroit are the #28 rush defence, having conceded 15 rushing touchdowns and an average of 133 rushing yards per game. Atlanta should be able to run the ball better then they did in San Francisco. I envisage Arthur Smith calling Cordarelle Patterson and Mike Davis number often on Sunday to attack Detroit on the ground. It would help prevent the Falcons from having to pass protect, which Mayfield, McGary and Hennessy are pretty abysmal at. Smiths offense in year one has been extremely passive. The offensive line needs improving in the off season, but it would be nice if we could add more speed at the skill positions as well, to give us more of a home run threat. I expect recently announced pro bowler, Kyle Pitts to have his best game since week 7 at the Dolphins. Josh Andrews and Drew Dalman can't be any worse then Jalen Mayfield is, so why not put them in for the last three games? 

Lions vs Falcons (Special Teams)

The Lions are on their 4th kicker of the season in Riley Patterson. Patterson has been perfect with all 15 of his kicks in his four appearances. Detroit haven't conceded a punt or kick off return touchdown. They haven't had a punt blocked either. Younghoe Koo is the 2nd alternative for the pro bowl at kicker underlying his quality. Atlanta have allowed one kick off return touchdown this year, they haven't allowed a punt return touchdown and they had a punt blocked at Dallas in week 10.

A Lions Fan View

I asked @SameNewLions on Twitter a few questions about his team.

Are you happy with how the season has gone so far?

"This season was always going to be tough, any honest view of the roster and salary cap was going to tell you that. The Lions chose to take all the pain in year 1 of the rebound. The 2020 NFL salary cap is $182.5m — the Lions have $65m in dead cap this season. On top of that, many of the highest paid players have dealt with injury (Romeo Okwara, Frank Ragnoe, and Jeff Okudah to season ending injuries, Decker for a long stretch early), and the secondary in particular has been ravaged. 

What I really wanted to see this year was proof that this coaching staff could be viable. I imagine there are quite a few eyes around the league watching Detroit to see about all these former players congregating on a staff, and to this point, the results have been encouraging. A roster that’s not as talented as others, and then a slew of key injuries, and the Lions continue to put up a fight in almost every game (stinkers against the Eagles and Bengals notwithstanding). So this year has gone to script, and the coaching staff looks more than viable.  This fan base loves MC/DC (Motor City Dan Campbell)."

The Falcons had the opportunity to draft Penei Sewell but passed. How has he played this year?  

"Penei Sewell was always going to be a stud. A few years back, he was in talks to be the #1 overall pick, even with all these great QB prospects coming out. Penei hadn’t had live game reps in almost a year and a half by the time training camp rolled around (sat out his last year at Oregon), and the Lions immediately switched him from the left to the right side. He struggled in preseason, but still showed off impressive reps — especially in the run and screen games. 

Two days before the season started, Decker went down with injury, and he was forced to switch to the left side, and face off against Nick Bosa with almost no practice time, and held his own. He had a few struggles here and there, but also showed signs of dominance; that inconsistency showed up on his early PFF grades. But a few games before a decker came back he really turned it on, and since Decker came back and he switched to the right side, he’s been downright dominant. I believe he’s the #3 ranked tackle in all of football since week 8. As a 21 year old, he has a decade plus of dominance in front of him. His feet are just insane for a man his size."

Has Sewell been the star of your rookie class?

"Without question, he has been the star of this rookie class, although there is another name that will make that list. 

2nd round DT Levi Onwuzerike has had a few good moments, but has so far underwhelmed. 

3rd round DT Alim McNeill, however, has really impressed, and looks to be a building block for the future. 

4th round CB Ifeatu Melifonwu has been injured all season, but will make his debut against the Falcons, so Lions fans will key on that. 

5th round WR Amon-Ra St. Brown was a training camp darling who has recently started putting it all together, with at least 8 catches in 3 straight games. Not only has he set the Lions record for catches in a season (that includes besting one Calvin Johnson), he also shows a nasty disposition in the blocking game. He looks to be a long term fit here, just has a Detroit mentality to him. 

6th round LB Derrick Barnes has finally seen the field some, but the original plan was definitely to red shirt him this season. He’s athletic and brings some thump with him, making some impressive tackles on the goal line and a 2 point convert as his highlights. 

7th round RB Jermar Jefferson has shown flashes, but couldn’t see the field early with Swift and Williams healthy, and now can’t see the field late as he’s been dealing with injuries. The emergence of “Netflix” Craig Reynolds at RB makes his road ahead even more difficult."

Who has been your best player this season?

"Swift has probably been the best player when healthy, as the whole offense has revolved around him. Sewell would be in contention for this spot I think, too, especially lately. Charles Harris has flashed as a reclamation project on the defensive side, especially against the Cardinals last week — he was all over the field. 12 tackles as an edge player, including 7 solos."

What player has been your biggest pleasant surprise?

"Amani Oruwariye has really stepped up. Pushed into the de facto #1 CB role due to injury, he’s racked up 6 picks (including an absolute beauty against the cards), and has a passer rating allowed of 36 when targeted (2nd in the NFL, minimum 50 plus targets)."

What is Detroits biggest strength?

"Detroit’s biggest strength, when healthy, will undoubtedly be its offensive line. Ragnow is out to injury, but this unit is still bullying people some. Matt Nelson, who had to fill in at tackle with Decker’s injury, will play a lot as a 6th offensive lineman, so the depth there is starting to show improvement. Come next season, with health, this unit could be a top 5 outfit."

What is Detroits biggest weakness?

"The biggest weakness is a lack of overall talent. The WR room has been uninspiring, and apart from the last 4 weeks of impressive play from Goff, the QB play was truly worrisome earlier. The kicking game has been a mess, but looks like it has maybe found it’s long term solution in Riley Patterson, so that’s hopeful.

On the defensive side, the return of Okwara should help the pass rush, but a dominant edge player in the draft might be the priority. Injuries have decimated the secondary, but the Lions have found a few pieces (UDFAs) that have contributed, so it will be interesting to see how they handle that group this off-season."

Your score prediction for Sunday?

"As for a score prediction, I haven’t done that too much as a fan this season. I’ve gone into games just hoping to see a good fight from the boys. That said, Atlanta has been underwhelming in the small bits I’ve seen from them, and seem to be a streaky outfit. That unpredictability (and the thrashing of the 10 win Cardinals last week) has Lions fans thinking that there’s no reason the Lions can’t come away with a win this week.

So let’s go 20-17 Lions."

Betting Odds

Spread: Falcons -6

Moneyline: Lions +215 Falcons -245

Over/Under: 42.5 points

Prediction 

I think the Falcons will struggle to rush the passer but still get the job done.

If Boyle starts: Lions 13-24 Falcons. 

If Goff starts: Lions 20-24 Falcons. 

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