Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons Week 13 Preview
The Buccaneers currently hold the NFCs #3 seed with an 8-3 record and the Falcons sit outside the playoffs at 5-6 due to Washington the #7 seed having the tie breaker over them.
Head to Head
The Buccaneers rank 5th in terms of turnover differential with +8. The Falcons rank 28th with -7. This is an area Atlanta must win on Sunday if they are to pull off an upset win. Tampa Bay are 3-3 on the road so far this season whereas the Falcons are 0-4 at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. In their encounter earlier in the season, the Buccaneers ran out 48-25 winners. The score was inflated because of two late pick sizes. It'll be a battle of the best vs. worst in the NFL in terms of DVOA. Tampa are ranked 1st and Atlanta rank a miserable 32nd. Having been blown out several times this season is a big factor why the Falcons rank so poorly.
Buccaneers D vs Falcons O
Todd Bowles coordinates a Buccaneers defence that will look to feast on a poor Falcons offense. Safety Mike Edwards managed to score two pick sixes last time these teams met in week two. Atlanta did move the ball well that day but that was with Calvin Ridley in the side. Bowles is renowned for being blitz heavy.
His defence have sacked opposing quarterbacks twenty seven times. It is hard to envisage Matt Ryan not being sacked often on Sunday. The Falcons offensive line have given up 21 sacks. It would be a good idea for Arthur Smith to use the screen game to keep their defensive line honest.
The Buccaneers defence ranks middle of the pack for points allowed per game at 23.0. Cordarelle Patterson had a huge impact last time out against the Jaguars in his return to the starting line up. Washington football team gave a blueprint on how to upset the Bucs. They forced two turnovers and played keep away from Tom Brady.
Washington converted over 50% of their third downs and went two for two on fourth down; a key element to dominate time of possession. Washington controlled the clock 39 minutes to 21 in their favour. Keeping Brady off the field is essential for the Falcons. They stuck with the run even though they only averaged 2.8 yards per carry. The Falcons must do the same to keep Bowles from dialling up some of his notorious blitzes.
The Falcons got their run game going last weekend in Jacksonville. They'll be facing a much sterner test going up against the leagues best rush defence. Fullback Keith Smith has been used as a makeshift tightend when the Falcons are in 21 personnel. Kaleb McGary hasn't had a good season but he was good last weekend against Jacksonville. He will need to bring his A game as he'll have his hands full going up against JPP and Shaquill Barrett.
Matt Hennessy and Drew Dalman are scheduled to rotate snaps. Hopefully the competition drives them on to deliver their best. Vita Vea and Ndamukong Suh are dominant defensive linemen so I expect it to be a baptism of fire for rookie center Dalman.
Buccaneers O vs Falcons D
The Falcons defence will be up against a much more talented set of players when they are on the field. Tampa Bay are scoring a staggering 31.5 points per game so it no surprise, Brady is PFF's #1 ranked quarterback. Dean Pees unit is coming off two of their best games of the year. They'll need to improve on that, if Atlanta are to be competitive with the reigning Superbowl champions. The Buccaneers showed what a physical team they are by rushing for 142 yards and four touchdowns vs. a quality Colts defence. Anthony Rush was PFF's highest graded Falcon (85.7) vs. The Jaguars last time out. If he keeps it up, he should stick around next season and start beside Grady Jarrett on early down situations.
Another player who is the greatest to ever play in their position is former WWE superstar Rob Gronkowski. Gronkowski is crucial to their offense. He is PFF's #2 ranked tightend. Gronk is still a match up nightmare for defences as shown when he scored two touchdowns vs. Atlanta in week 2. Cameron Brate gives them a really good option as their tightend No.2, so expect them to run 21 personnel against a below average Falcons rush defence. Buccaneers all pro guard Ali Marpets status will be a big factor, as he has missed their last two outings. If he can play, it leaves the Falcons facing an offensive line with no obvious weak links.
The disparity between both these teams set of wide receivers is about as big a margin as their is in the league. Tampa are without Antonio Brown but they still have pro bowlers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Falcons corner AJ Terrell is good enough to possibly take one of them out of the game but Pees will need somebody else to step up if we are to limit them in the passing game. Falcons rookie edge defender Adetokunbo Ogundeji impressed last time vs. Jacksonville. He should feature often on Sunday.
Tom Brady leads the #1 ranked passing offense. Brady threw five touchdown passes in week 2 when the teams last met. Expect him to go after below average corner Fabian Moreau when throwing to his wide receivers. Double teaming Gronkowski should be a priority because we don't have anyone who can cover him one on one.
All positional pictures taken from PFF.com
Buccaneers vs Falcons (Special Teams)
Former Falcons special teams coordinator Keith Armstrong oversees the Buccaneers special teams these days. The Falcons edge the Buccs in field goal made percentage (88.2% to 77.8%) .It might be the only area the Falcons are stronger then Tampa. The Falcons have allowed one kick off return touchdown this season and they also have had one punt blocked. Tampa haven't scored or allowed a kick off or punt touchdown this season.
A Buccaneers Fan View
I asked UK Bucs (@UkBucs on Twitter), a set of Tampa Bay Buccaneers fans from the United Kingdom a few questions about their team.
Are you happy with how your season has gone so far?
"In one word, yes! There is always a concern that every team ups their game when they play the Super Bowl champs, other than the strange performances which resulted in defeat against the Saints and Washington Football Team, its been a really good season so far considering the injuries we’ve had".
Which one team do you see as your biggest competitor in the NFC?
"Definitely the Saints but not sure if that’s mainly driven by them always beating us and winning the NFC South over recent years. Defeating them in the playoffs was arguably the sweetest win of our Super Bowl run".
How will the Buccs season end?
"If we can stay healthy I can definitely see another run for the big prize. Honestly, I think it probably ends in Green Bay on a miserable January evening".
Who is your most underrated player?
"Chris Godwin, he’d be WR1 at the majority of other teams and always seems to make plays when it matters".
What area on your team do you think the Falcona can exploit?
"Definitely the pass defence, we’ve been short at CB due to injury this season and targeting that area could be fruitful for the Falcons".
Score prediction for Sunday?
"Feel like these games are often close and good contests so I’m going to back us to make it 3 wins in a row and go Bucs 28 Falcons 24".
Betting Odds
Spread: Buccaneers -9.5
Moneyline: Buccaneers -475 Falcons +340
Over/Under: 50.5 points
Prediction
Buccaneers 27-13 Falcons.
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