New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons Week 18 Preview

The Atlanta Falcons host the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, knowing they have the opportunity to stop the Saints making the playoffs. It would be a good way to end the season. Sean Paytons side need a win in Atlanta, coupled with an LA Rams win over the San Francisco 49ers to guarantee a fifth consecutive trip to the post season. A win for Arthur Smiths men would see them finish above their arch rivals and 2nd in the NFC South. It would also give the Falcons twice as many wins as they had in 2020.

Head to Head

Last time these two sides was in week 9, where the Falcons came out victorious 27-25, thanks to a walk off Younghoe Koo game winning field goal. That day Trevor Siemian quaterbacked New Orleans, on Sunday Taysom Hill will be the starting quarterback. Hill started both of the games against the Falcons last year at quarterback, winning both.

New Orleans are a hot and cold operation. They have wins over Superbowl contenders Tampa Bay twice, Green Bay at a neutral venue and New England on the road, but they lost to the New York Giants and Atlanta at home. If the Saints play their best game on Sunday, they'll beat the Falcons. 

In 2020, Atlanta had the best scoring differential (-18) for a team with 4 wins or less in NFL history, whereas this season they have the worst scoring differential (-136) of a team with 7 or more wins in NFL History. 

Saints D vs Falcons O

Kyle Pitts is just 59 yards shy of Mike Ditkas rookie receiving yards record for tightends (Ditka achieved this in a 14 game season), but he is doubtful, due to a hamstring injury. Pitts trained on Thursday and said he believes he will play. If Pitts can't play though, I dread to see the offensive production from our offense. Pitts accounts for 28.9% of the offenses receiving yards. 

The Falcons have the worst wide receiving group in the NFL. Calvin Ridley played only five games this season and he still ranks #2 for wide receiver targets on the team with 52. Only Russell Gage has more (81). The Falcons wide receivers also rank last in the NFL for % of a teams pass attempts thrown to their wideouts. Cameron Jordan will be licking his chops at the prospect of facing Kaleb McGary. Jordan racked up 3.5 sacks last Sunday versus Carolina. He has 8 sacks in his last 4 encounters with Atlanta including one in the week 9 matchup. Jordan gets positioned inside on obvious passing downs. If he is left one on one with Jalen Mayfield, Matt Ryan might leave the stadium Sunday in an ambulance. 

Marcus Davenport has 7.5 sacks in 10 games this season. Davenport and David Onyemata, along with Jordan, give the Saints three elite three-down lineman. Falcons wideout Olamide Zaccheaus had his best game of the season in their last meeting scoring two touchdowns. I'm surprised Arthur Smith hasn't filed a missing person's report for him because he hasn't been seen since.

Saints O vs Falcons D

The Saints wil be run heavy on Sunday as they'll look to lean on Taysom Hills legs and Alvin Kamara. Kamara is a stud running back who has performed well against the Falcons in the past. New Orleans have injuries along their offensive line which has seen them give up ten sacks in their past two games.

Mark Ingram gives Sean Paytons side a good one-two punch at running back. Their isn't a wide receiver on New Orleans roster that will strike fear into the Falcons. New Orleans recipe for success on Sunday,  will be similar to how Buffalo beat Atlanta last weekend. Dominanting on the ground with a quality running back and a mobile quarterback.

Falcons linebacker Foye Oloukun leads the NFL in tackles with 179. Hopefully this will be Deion Jones last game for us. He ranks 80th out of 86 by PFF amongst linebackers.


Dean Pees defence ranks dead last for sacking the quarterback. Famous football manager, Jose Mourinho once went on a rant labeling his team's failure in European competition "football heritage", implying it was in his clubs culture or tradition. Atlanta not being able to rush the passer or sack the quarterback is definitely "football heritage".




Per @Obxleatherman on Twitter 


Jacob Tuioti-Mariner was cut by the Falcons on November 9th after appearing in 6 games this season. Despite not being on the team for two months, Mariner still ranks 2nd for sack leaders amongst Falcons this season with 2.0.

Pees should look to blitz often on Sunday. The Saints don't have the skill position players or the quarterback to beat the Falcons through the air. Marquez Callaway is the Saints leading receiver with 698 yards and 6 touchdowns. If Atlanta can force Taysom Hill into obvious passing downs, I doubt he has the ability to beat us using his arm. 


All positional pictures taken from PFF.com 

Saints vs Falcons (Special Teams)

The New Orleans Saints haven't returned a kick off or punt for a touchdown this season. They blocked a field goal against the Caroline Panthers in week two. The Atlanta Falcons haven't scored a return touchdown this season either.

A Saints Fan View

I asked Jeremy Hollinger (@jholl28 on Twitter), a huge New Orleans Saints Fan, a few questions about his team. 

Are you happy with how your season has gone so far?

"Yes, I’m happy with how our season is going, if you would have told me we still have a chance to make the playoffs after all our injuries and covid issues, I would have thought you were out of your mind. We should have won at least 2 or 3 more games, but lost them at the end. Just couldn’t finish."

"It’s been a crazy season!  Life after Drew Brees is going to be different and we will have some growing pains, but I love my team."

Is Taysom Hill the answer at Quarterback?

"I love Taysom, is he the long term answer, I don’t think so. He plays so many roles for our team so I’m good with him being on the field doing whatever he asked to do. As a starter he is 6-2 so that’s not too bad."

Who has been the Saints MVP this season?

"The Saints MVP this season has been Cam Jordan, he has played great all season."

What's the Saints biggest strength?

"The Saints biggest strength is having Sean Payton as a coach and our Defense. They have been our saving grace for most of the season."

What's the Saints biggest weakness?

"Our biggest weakness is our receivers!  With out question. Michael Thomas being out was a huge disappointment and hurt us big time."

Score prediction?

"I’ve got the Saints winning a close one 24 - 17, clinging to our playoff lives."

Betting Odds

Spread: Saints -4.5
Moneyline: Saints -205 Falcons +172
Over/Under: 40.5 points

Prediction 

Saints 16-9 Falcons. 

Follow Us

We can be followed on Twitter @falcons_corner or on Instagram at falcons.corner.


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