New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons Week 1 2022 Preview

The Atlanta Falcons kick off their 2022 NFL Season the same way they ended last season, with a home game against their arch rivals New Orleans Saints. Arthur Smiths led Atlanta to a 7-10 record in his first year as Head Coach, splitting the series with the Saints 1-1. The drastic change out of New Orleans this off season, is the departure of long time head coach Sean Payton. His replacement is Dennis Allen, who got a promotion, after six impressive years as the teams defensive coordinator. New Orleans manhandled Atlanta in January when the two teams last met, running out 30-20 winners, but the game was more one sided than the scoreline suggests. In their last 10 meetings, the Saints have been dominant racking up seven wins to the Falcons three. Despite this, Atlanta are 7-1 all time in season openers against their fierce rivals.

Head to Head

Saints D vs Falcons O

For the first time since 2007, Matt Ryan is not the starting quarterback for the Atlanta Falcons. Marcus Mariota is the man given the task to fill his shoes. Whilst many see Mariota as simply a stop gap, he'll be determined to prove he is a starting caliber quarterback. It is one of the toughest defenses to open up the season against, the Saints defense have pro bowlers at all 3 levels and ranked as the NFL's 4th best scoring defense in 2021. New Orleans have a brand new safety pairing, they recruited Tyrann Mathieu and Marcus Maye in free agency after Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and Marcus Williams departed. Out wide, Atlanta have two new wide receivers in Drake London and Bryan Edwards. London, who was selected 8th overall in the 2022 NFL Draft has been dealing with an injury ahead of this game. He should start, but I wouldn't be surprised if his snap count is reduced. London will be needed, if Atlanta are to cause an upset on Sunday. Kyle Pitts is the main man on offense for Atlanta, huge things are expected of the 2nd year tightend. Dennis Allens' defense was phenomenal against tightends in 2021, allowing just 42.0 yards per game to the position. Allen will likely roll the coverage to focus on Kyle Pitts, so London and Edwards will see single coverage opportunities. London's head to heads with Marcus Lattimor isn't a favourable match up for the rookie in week one, I'd like to see Smith line London up against Bradley Roby. Arthur Smith will have to coach his ass off if the Dirty Birds are to be victorious. It is isn't a match up I like at all to open the season.

In obvious passing situations, the Saints will be licking their chops going up against an Atlanta offensive line with plenty of question marks. It is about a tough a match up in week 1 that Atlanta could face. Marcus Davenport (when healthy) and Cameron Jordan are a quality pair of pass rushers. Jordan has recorded 23 sacks in 22 meetings with the Falcons. If Arthur Smiths men are to keep this game competitive, slowing down the Saints pass rush will be key. Smith will have to keep the pocket clean for Mariota; moving the pocket with roll outs, utilizing the screen game and running read option plays could be vital to slowing down the Saints ’nascar’ package. David Onyemata is a really good interior lineman, who will ask Drew Dalman, Chris Lindstrom and Elijah Wilkinson plenty of questions.  If Atlanta are going to target anyone in pass coverage, I feel it should be who ever replaces the injured Paulson Adebo.

In their two meetings last season, Atlanta rushed for just 34 and 62 yards respectively. Arthur Smith's wants his offenses bread and butter to be an efficient rush game and if his team is to come out on top they'll need a big rushing day. The Saints were the 4th best rush defense last season, allowing just 93.5 rush yards per game. His side aren't in the position to pass their way to victory, a balanced approach where they keep the Saints defense honest is vital. Cordarelle Patterson was limited to 21 rushing yards on 13 attempts against the Saints in 2021. Atlanta's offensive line will need to play much better then it did last season. Marcus Mariota offers the threat of the run from the quarterback position, but he has a history of not being durable. He won't be able to take the beating Matt Ryan has in the past against this opposition. If the Falcons can have some early joy rushing the football, it will open up the threat of the play action game. Their play action game looked effective in their pre season game against the New York Jets. Flanking Kyle Pitts out wide might be the likeliest route to a big play, Pitts flashed in pre season and training camp with the Jets how much of a match up nightmare, he is for corners when lined up at wide receiver. Arthur Smith's gameplan should contain plenty of read option (RO) and read pass options (RPO's) in my opinion.

Saints O vs Falcons D

Dean Pees is sick of the Falcons having a lousy defense,  and the whole fanbase agrees. "We’re changing the culture around this daggum place and it’s not going to be mediocre. It’s not going to be average. It’s not going to be in the bottom half of the league like it’s been 15 out of the last 20 years. Sick of that crap.". The offseason additions of Lorenzo Carter and Arnold Ebiketie are expected to improve a Falcons pass rush that was non existent throughout the 2021 season. Ryan Ramcyzk is the Saints best lineman, and the biggest question mark on their offense is their interior offensive line play. They'll have a whole new wide receiver group as Michael Thomas returns from injury, Jarvis Landry arrived in free agency and they drafted speedster Chris Olave with the 11th overall pick of the 2022 NFL Draft. Slowing them down will be a difficult task, AJ Terrell is arguably the best corner in the league, and Terry Fontenot done a great job adding Casey Hayward as the number 2 corner. Terrell and Hayward will be in for a huge battle. Thomas is a top 5 wide receiver in the NFL, if he can return to the form he produced before his injuries. Chris Olave offers the Saints a home run threat so the new starting safety duo of Richie Grant and Jaylinn Hawkins will have to bring their 'A' game when providing deep coverage help to their cornerbacks. Former CFL star and Winnipeg Blue Bomber, Dee Alford has been a breath of fresh air in pre season for Dean Pees unit. He'll start at nickel corner due to the injury to Isiah Oliver.

When the two sides met in January, New Orleans rushed 44 times for 196 yards. Stopping the rushing attack and forcing Jameis Winston into obvious passing downs is essential. Grady Jarrett extended his contract three years during the offseason and he'll be Atlanta's main threat to shutting down New Orleans run game. Winston is renowned for being a turnover machine, he has played well against Atlanta in his career. Mykal Walker has been given the duty of calling out the plays Dean Pees' calls. Anthony Rush, Ta'Quon Graham and Grady Jarrett will need to keep their linebackers clean to fill any run gaps. Atlanta ranked 27th against the run last year allowing 131.9 rush yards per game. Alvin Kamara has historically been good against the Falcons, averaging 4.67 yards per carry in 10 games. Expect to see Taysom Hill for one or two read option or trick plays.

Images taken from PFF.com.

Saints vs Falcons (Special Teams)

Atlanta Falcons kicker Younghoe Koo was the leagues 3rd most efficient kicker (min 20 attempts) with a 93.1% success rate. Will Lutz missed the 2021 season, because of injury, he kicked at a 82.1% efficiency in 2020. Wide receiver Deonte Harty will return kicks and punts for New Orleans. Converted running back Avery Williams will return kicks and punts for Atlanta.

A Saints Fan View

I asked the WhoDattsNation page, the Fantasy Football Network scout team New Orleans Saints correspondent, a few questions about his team. He can be followed on Instagram @whodattsnation.

With Sean Payton departing, are the Saints fanbase happy with the Dennis Allen hire?

"Yeah losing Sean Payton sucks. He’s one of the best to ever coach, but hiring DA keeps the same continuity and winning culture in the building. DA has built a pretty good team and Saints fans love it."

Is Jameis Winston the answer at Quarterback?

"It’s hard to say right now if Jameis is the answer. After this season we’ll have a better feel. He looked decent last year but he didn’t have any real weapons to throw to and he was playing too cautious."

How will the Saints season finish?

"I think the team makes the playoffs whether is as division winner or not. I can see them winning one playoff game. Just depends on the team, environment etc."

What is the Saints biggest strength?

"The saints biggest strengh is probably still the DB room. Even after losing Chauncey the Saints still have a lot of really talented guys who can play a lot of positions and can play anywhere on the field. "

What's the Saints weakness or area for concern?

"The biggest area of concern for me probably is Linebacker, Tight end, Offensive line. It’s not that it’s a concern but more of a question mark and how good can they actually be."

Score Prediction?

"I think saints win 31-13."

Betting Odds

Spread: Saints -5.5

Moneyline: Saints -225 Falcons +190

Over/Under: 42.5 points

My Prediction 

Saints 24-13 Falcons. 

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