Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers Week 15 Preview

If the Atlanta Falcons are to make the playoffs they will have to win this weekend. They travel to the team currently holding the #6 seed in San Francisco. The 49ers have had an up and down year, but they have won four out of their last five games to sit at 7-6. Former Falcons offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan is the head coach of San Francisco. Shanahan is one of the best offensive minds in the NFL. The 49ers made a huge trade during the offseason to go up and grab former North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance. 

Shanahan has decided to sit Lance so far this season, putting trust in Jimmy Garoppolo, the quarterback who got San Francisco to the Superbowl two seasons ago. The 49ers are one of the most physical teams in the league in the trenches. Shanahan loves to run an outside zone scheme. Matt Ryan thrived under Shanahan when he was with Atlanta. It is one of the most friendly quarterback systems there is. Last time the Falcons made the trip to Santa Clara in 2019, they shocked the 49ers, winning the game 29-22 thanks to a Julio Jones touchdown with two seconds left.  

Head to Head

Falcons O vs 49ers D

Nick Bosa is the 49ers star defensive player. He has 14 sacks so far this season, just two less then the whole Atlanta Falcons team. Bosa can beat a tackle with speed or power. He can rush effectively from either side, tallying up a staggering 28 quarterback hits this year. Bosa is one of only two players to have atleast 5 sacks rushing from either edge position this season. He does favour rushing up against the left tackle though, so Jake Matthews will have his hands full. Hayden Hurst and Mike Davis may be required to chip Bosa in certain situations to help their tackle out. Arik Armstead gives DeMeco Ryans unit an internal presence. He is an all down lineman, who will be licking his chops at the prospect of facing Jalen Mayfield. They have allowed the 6th least amount of passing yards per game.

Arthur Smith has gotten the Falcons playing a very cautious brand of football on offense. They have balanced the run and pass pretty well in recent outings. Matt Ryan is averaging 10.2 yards per completion, the lowest of his career. The lack of wide receiver weapons in addition to a shoddy offensive line are definitely two reasons why deep shot plays haven't been dialled up. San Francisco rank 20th for points allowed at an average of 23.2.  Fred Warner is an above average linebacker; so I foresee him or safety Jimmie Ward matching up against Falcons best receiver Kyle Pitts when in man coverage. Arden Key has done a nice job acting as a situational pass rusher, the 49ers picked him up in the offseason following his release from Las Vegas. For the Falcons to make a game of this, their offensive line will have to play their best game of the year. San Francisco do have some issues at cornerback. Arthur Smith would be wise to use Kyle Pitts out wide on occasion to exploit this weakness.

The Falcons done a good job of rushing the football vs. a strong Carolina front last Sunday. They average 91.1 rushing yards per game, going up against a 49ers defence, that allows 112.2 yards per game. Arthur Smiths men will have to better these numbers to get a win. If Matt Ryan is having to drop back into obvious passing situations, I don't envisage a happy afternoon for No.2, as Atlanta have the 17th ranked passing attack. D.J Jones and Armstead give San Francisco two of PFF's top 18 interior defensive linemen. On paper, San Francisco's defensive line should dominate the Falcons offensive line, but football isn't played on paper. Rookie cornerback Ambry Thomas had a baptism of fire last Sunday going up against Jamarr Chase. The Falcons would be wise to try and isolate Thomas one on one and go after him.

Cordarelle Patterson became the Falcons first player with 5 rushing and 5 receiving touchdowns in a season. An amazing feat he has achieved with four games still remaining. The Falcons will need him to have another great game if they are to win. Russell Gage has played better in his last two games but our other wide receivers need to play better. I find it frustrating that Arthur Smith hasn't given Frank Darby a few opportunities instead of Tajae Sharpe. The Falcons offense has been disappointng this season, averaging just 18.8 points per game which ranks 26th in the NFL. San Francisco are -2 in turnover differential this season, where as the Falcons are -5. The Falcons have done a great job in close games this year. They are 6-2 in one score games. 

Falcons D vs 49ers O

The 49ers rank #13 in points scored per game at 25.3. Trent Williams is the best left tackle in football and the 49ers like to run off tackle, utilising his ability to get out on the perimeter blocking. The Falcons will have to make sure to set the edge when attempting to stop the 49ers ground game. Shanahan is a big fan of using 21 personnel. They have the 8th best rushing attack. Kyle Juszczyk is the best full back of his generation and an absolute force in the run game. The 49ers are always a heavy play action team, whom motion pre snap more then any other club. At their best, the 49ers are a ball control offense. Anthony Rush, Marlon Davidson and Grady Jarrett will be key to the Falcons stopping the run. 

Deebo Samuel has been utilized as both a receiver and rusher. Samuel has already eclipsed 1000 yards through the air. He has 11 total touchdowns (5 receiving and 6 rushing). Tightend George Kittle is a match up nightmare for opposing defences and he looks to be back to his best. Kittle is coming off his best outing of the season after suffering through some injuries earlier on in the year. Foye Oloukun and Deion Jones have been really poor this season in coverage, so I worry Kittle could have a huge day. Former Falcons centre Alex Mack anchors a 49ers offensive line that mauls people in the run game. Trent Williams has a 99.6 rushing grade from PFF this season. He is head and shoulders above the next best tackle. Falcons safety Erik Harris has been ruled out for the season so Jaylinn Hawkins should start in his absence, Richie Grant may also get some opportunities.

Guard Daniel Brunskill and Tackle Tom Compton can be exposed in pass protection. Jeff Wilson Jr. is expected to start at running back given that San Francisco have an injury bug at the position. Jimmy Garropolo has his critics but his touchdown (17) to interception (8) rate is good. If San Francisco can get their run game going then it will be a disastrous Sunday for the Falcons. Their outside zone rushing scheme sets up all their play action passes. Dante Fowler is Atlanta's best pass rusher. Dean Pees would be wise to line Fowler up against Compton. The 49ers have some brilliant play action concepts that rely on the outside zone as shown below. Brandon Aiyuk is a big YAC threat, particularly on crossing routes. 

Shanahan's offense frequently uses play action with the "Yankee concept". It is usually just a two receiver route concept with max protection. It is effective because it draws up the oppositions linebackers, leaving the crosser open. If the safeties bite on the crossing route, then you have a shot play to the receiver running the post. It can be seen here. 

Shanahan also likes playaction throwbacks to his tightend. It is a play he used to great effect when with the Falcons. It is personally one of my favourite plays as it is so hard to defend. 

The 49ers love to run the play action boot too. They can run it to either side. If the Falcons can slow the 49ers run game, it will limit Shanahans ability to use all the wrinkles of his offense.

George Kittle skill set, in addition to Kyle Shanahan's scheme make him the leagues best tightend. Kittle possesses amazing YAC (yards after catch) ability as shown below. Deion Jones is atheltic enough to match Kittle but Dean Pees would be wise to double the former Iowa man.

Falcons vs 49ers (Special Teams)

San Francisco have been successful with only 80% of their field goals. The 49ers have given up one kick off return touchdown, just like the Falcons. San Frans opponents average starting position off of kickoffs is the 23 yard line. The 49ers haven't allowed a punt return touchdown, neither have they had a punt blocked this season. The Falcons had a punt blocked at Dallas in week 10.

A 49ers Fan View

I asked 49erFaithfulUK (@49erFaithfulUK), The Official San Francisco 49ers Booster Club in the UK a few questions about the 49ers ahead of Sunday's clash.

Are you happy with how the season has gone so far? 

"It’s been a rollercoaster so far but we are finding consistency at the right time".

Are San Francisco fans behind the decision to sit Lance in his rookie year? 

"The majority are, Lance was never going to start the first year and needed to sit and learn, we made the mistake of throwing Alex Smith into the starting role after week 5 of his rookie season and it had a negative impact on his growth."

What is your biggest strength? 

"Controlling the clock through our run game which is largely based on play action and misdirection which is difficult for defences to scheme against."

What is your biggest weakness? 

"Currently our starting corners are pretty poor, all opponents should be looking to take advantage of matchups against our CB’s."

Who has been your player of the season so far? 

"Deebo Samuel has stood out above all others, however, the rookie RB Elijah Mitchell has been a pleasant surprise for a 6th round pick and Trent Williams has been a human cheat code, a 99 overall rating on Pff is just ridiculous."

Are Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch on the hot seat? 

"Some fans seem to think so, but the majority understand the process and know that until we get a season out of Lance, both jobs will be safe."

Score Prediction? 

"I’m sorry to say I think this will be a statement game by the Niners and I’m going for a bit of a blowout win, 38-13. Falcons are ranked 27th against the run and with a fully fit Deebo Samuel and Jeff Wilson in the backfield, I think the Falcons defence will spend a lot of time on the field."

They have a podcast called the 49er Faithful UK show available on Podbean, Spotify, iTunes, Google Podcasts, Stitcher. They also have a Facebook group and an instagram account, easily searchable using 49er Faithful UK. Lastly, they have a YouTube channel as well with some vlogs from trips across to San Francisco.  

Betting Odds

Spread: 49ers -9.5

Moneyline: Falcons +320 49ers -400

Over/Under: 46.0 points

Prediction 

Football is won in the trenches and San Franciso have better lines on both sides of the ball then the Falcons. 

Falcons 13-30 49ers. 

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